The megaprojects are not dead. Gov. Bill Walker may revive the road to Juneau.
When he first came to office, Walker stopped work on big projects that had accumulated like parasites on the state's finances. Although we never had money to build them all, even during the fat oil years, the Legislature had kept paying engineers to study them.
Now that oil revenues have dropped more than 80 percent, we can't even afford the engineers. But there's a mysterious virus in the Governor's Mansion that induces big dreams.
When Walker first stopped the megaprojects, he was so sure of himself that he fired Commissioner of Transportation Pat Kemp just for speaking up for the Juneau road. A month later, when he allowed some spending to continue, it was with no intent of building.
[Alaska Gov. Walker fires DOT commissioner]
"The Juneau access road, there has been concern under the terms of some of the funding that if we completely stopped it before a record of decision, potentially we might have to refund $27 million," Walker told me in February. "I have allowed these to go forward, not unrestricted, but to a parking spot that makes sense from a regulatory process, preserve what's been done previously, but definitely did not mean a green light."
In June, when he vetoed half the Alaska Permanent Fund dividend and cut various state departments, Walker finally ended the Knik Arm crossing project and the Susitna-Watana dam. Part of the message of that event was that he would cut deeply before he would take dividend checks.
But Walker didn't mention the last two megaprojects, the Ambler road and the Juneau Access project. Now he is seriously considering building the Juneau road.
I had heard the rumors and asked him about it Saturday night, when we both attended the new play about Govs. Jay Hammond and Walter Hickel at Cyrano's Playhouse, called "The Ticket." Walker confirmed that he is weighing approval to build the Juneau road. He sounded like he was leaning in favor.
Walker said this road is not a bridge to nowhere, like the Knik project. It provides access. When I brought up the political hazard of taking away half of everyone's PFD while approving a $574 million megaproject, Walker said people bring up the dividend veto about everything anyway.
And so they should. That's how government is supposed to work. If leaders want to spend money, they have to convince the public that it is worth taking that money from their pockets. But that's not how we've done things for a very long time in Alaska.
Like Hickel in 1990, Walker got elected in 2014 by switching parties and running mates. And like Hickel, Walker is obsessed with building a gas line. In remarks after the play, he recalled traveling with Hickel to China to talk about it. Walker himself was headed to Singapore to sell gas the next day.
The play also mocks Hickel's love of big projects, including his failed attempt to build a road to Cordova. In fact, Hickel started the Juneau Access project 23 years ago. It has been studied off and on ever since.
The project would extend a road that currently leads 40 miles north of Juneau to a dead end at Echo Cove, taking it another 50 miles to a new dead end near the Katzehin River, where a ferry would carry vehicles to Skagway.
The project is estimated to cost $574 million, mostly in federal highway funds. Alaska's share of federal money is set, so other transportation projects around the state would have to be delayed or canceled. State funds would pay a match and cover maintenance.
The road can't go all the way to Skagway because it would have to cross park lands. Federal highway money can't be used for that. Walker aide Rebecca Braun said the governor is not considering building that final section with state money.
Critics predict the project could cost much more than the estimate, a reasonable fear. If built, the road would be an engineering marvel beyond any other road in Alaska, with many extreme challenges.
Juneau carpenter Mike Miller is one of the few people ever to traverse the route of the proposed road. He made a human-powered trek from Juneau to Talkeetna, then climbed Denali.
Miller said the traverse along Lynn Canal to Skagway was the hardest part of the trip, much harder than Denali, requiring days of advanced rock climbing to cross sheer granite cliffs and rock falls. And an ocean swim of more than 3 miles.
[Video of Mike Miller's climbing the road route]
Miller said surveyors couldn't cross some of the canyons. Their stakes gave out on each side. Where cliffs fall to the sea, building the road would require blasting away mountains. Retaining walls would be hundreds of feet high.
But even accepting the cost estimate, state-funded economists found the road would be so expensive that the economic return would be negative — the benefit to the public would be only 23 cents for every dollar spent. To put it another way, the government could create four times as much economic benefit by simply handing out the $574 million without building a road.
Maintenance costs would be large. The route runs through numerous avalanche chutes.
After environmentalists successfully sued to compel the state to consider using more ferries instead of building the road, project studies found that the Alaska Marine Highway System would be a cheaper option. Merely keeping the road open would cost $5 million a year more than the ferry service.
Juneau politicians say Walker has been lobbied hard by road advocates. He has been loaded with binders of evidence from both sides. With many options studied over a couple of decades, there is plenty for him to read.
But this is one time when the political answer is the right answer. If there is any hope of unifying Alaskans behind giving up part of our dividends and paychecks to support government, optional megaprojects such as this road must stop.
Correction: This article originally stated the Juneau road project would cost an estimated $547 million. The estimate is actually $574 million.
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