FAIRBANKS — For those of us who have been wondering when winter would arrive, we have reached the point when it is safe to quote anyone who has ever followed the Cubs: Wait till next year.
The Fairbanks forecast for the balance of February is for temperatures climbing into the 30s and low 40s, borderline short-sleeve weather, and not just for the guys who wear shorts. We can only hope that the ice doesn't go out in Nenana before the ticket deadline April 5.
Anchorage readers may think of Fairbanks as the nation's center of shivering, but on Tuesday I saw a man riding a motorcycle on College Road.
The temperature was 22 above and he had a rear side cart and was wearing a closet full of winter clothes as he slid along. I know he does this during all kinds of weather, but it was a surprise — like seeing a flock of geese six weeks early.
Among the fashionable in Fairbanks, blimp-sized coats have given way to light jackets, echoing the heritage of Coatless Curley Monroe, the Klondike musher who bragged about never donning an overcoat.
While mushing to Fairbanks in February 1903, the Shirtwaist Sage sent a telegram to his buddies in Dawson: "No hat or shirt. Very warm." A second telegram came from a man who saw Curley strip down before he entered Fortymile: "Evidence a cinch. Tell all the boys."
Coatless Curley never heard of El Nino, but he would have been a big fan.
With this warm spell, it is looking increasing unlikely that Fairbanks will see any real extended winter weather. Thanks to ever-growing daylight hours and the intense light reflected off the snow — which makes March the brightest month of the year — it's not unusual for temperatures to climb by 30 or 35 degrees by late afternoon, no matter how cold it gets at night.
At the Ice Park, the volunteers and supporters of Ice Alaska are hoping for enough subfreezing weather to allow ice sculptors to perform their artistry, which will require maximum use of every spot of shade. At the Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce meeting Tuesday, Bill Bailey, the chairman of the board of directors, joked about moving the ice sculpting season to January next year.
We've had some subzero weather this season — nearly three months worth in fact — but it's never gotten far enough into negative territory to make a dent in the consciousness of the average Fairbanksan.
The thermometers have posted 20-below readings now and then, but we haven't seen 30 below, let alone 40 below or 50 below, the gold standard of frigid air. The same conditions that have kept the weather warm in Anchorage have been at work here, a steady flow of warm air from the south. It's an unsettling season for many people who aren't used to this.
"One of the most interesting things about this winter is the persistence of the pattern," said National Weather Service Meteorologist Rick Thoman.
The coldest reading this winter was 29 below in December, which barely qualifies as chilly. Some people say winter begins at 30 below, but others say we need more negativity.
"To me, winter is when it starts to get cold enough that mechanical things don't work," Thoman said. "That's what happens with deep cold at 35 to 40 below."
I know Thoman to be a serious student of the weather report both on and off the job. He proposed to Teresa Sammis on summer solstice and they married in 1994 on the winter solstice.
I wrote a column at the time in which he summed up his love of Fairbanks winter in words I've never forgotten: " I like winter and our dependable cold and lack of slush. I like it because we have good, solid, easy-to-work-with snow."
Most years we still have our share of cold weather, but it's not as dependable as it once was here in Frostbite Falls. And slush has become an unwelcome, though still infrequent visitor.
Most people in Fairbanks would rather see 50 below weather — if it doesn't go on too long — than survive a few days of freezing rain that turns the landscape into something fit for a Zamboni.
Using 40 below as an unofficial barometer, this is the winter that wasn't. Pipes haven't frozen, fuel bills are down and cold-weather boasting is more subdued than usual. In other years, "How cold was it at your place?" has been the start of many a spine-tingling conversation.
It hasn't even been cold enough to toss a hot cup of coffee in the air and have it not hit the ground. The perfect temperature for that miracle is 53 below, someone once claimed, though many people insist that 40 below will work just as well.
We've got a foot of snow at the airport, but what fell in September melted and the rest has been on the ground since November. For three months, it's been as dry as any desert.
Still, in this part of the state, it's been a great year for skiing, snowmachining and for getting outside to see the northern lights.
But little in the way of real cold.
In 1916, a promotional pamphlet about Fairbanks claimed that the climate was like that of a health resort and equal to or better than any place else, in the view of 75 percent of the people in Fairbanks. There was no word on what the other 25 percent thought. "The notable absence of humidity imparts a bracing quality to the atmosphere particularly conducive to good health," the Fairbanks Commercial Club said.
In the 109 years for which there are records about the bracing quality of the atmosphere, it has touched 30 below of colder at least once in March during 52 of those years.
The coldest high temperature on any day this winter has been a balmy 9 below. That is no one's idea of a cold day in Fairbanks.
Columnist Dermot Cole has been trying to stay warm in Fairbanks since 1974. The views expressed here are his and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com.