Alaska's largest city could see its first above-70-degree temperatures of the year this weekend, as meteorologists say 2016 remains on track to be the state's warmest ever.
The National Weather Service's Anchorage forecast calls for cloudy skies giving way to sun by Friday -- with highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s reaching 65 to 75 degrees on Saturday.
"I think those high-70s readings are going to be in the upper Eagle River and Midtown areas," said Sam Albanese, the meteorologist in charge of the NWS Anchorage office.
Klawock in Southeast Alaska set a record for the state's earliest temperature above 70 on March 31, when the mercury hit 71 degrees -- but Albanese said Wednesday that this week's Anchorage forecast won't even set a local record.
"We've had 70-degree readings early in May in the '80s, the '60s, the '20s," Albanese said.
The NWS was already reporting 70-degree temperatures in Skagway and Fairbanks Wednesday, with the Fairbanks office calling for warm conditions to continue until at least Friday. Meanwhile, Barrow tied its May 10 daily record when the temperature hit 36 degrees Tuesday.
According to Brian Brettschneider, a climate researcher with the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the weekend forecast still marks an early appearance for such warm temperatures in Anchorage.
"We only average about 15 days a year at 70 and the first one usually isn't until June 4, so it's pretty early for sure," Brettschneider said.
Alaska this year has already broken its record for high temperatures from January through April, by a strong enough margin to set up a pass at making this year the state's hottest ever, and there are other signs of that: Authorities reported the state's first 2016 wildfire in February near Delta Junction and bears emerging from hibernation two weeks earlier than usual. The state's previous hottest and second-hottest years on record were 2014 and 2015, respectively.
"If May through December are perfectly average, just normal, it'll end up being the warmest year in Alaska," Brettschneider said. "We can just coast."
Brettschneider said there is some dispute about whether Alaska's trend so far this year, which mirrors record temperatures across the planet in 2016, is a product of global climate change or this year's unusually powerful El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
"Most of what Alaska's experiencing is a reflection of what's going on globally -- those extremes are magnified in Arctic areas," Brettschneider said. "We're also coming off one of the strongest El Niños on record, which releases a lot of heat from the tropical oceans."
Although forecasts suggest this winter might bring a La Niña -- the opposite weather pattern of an El Niño, in which tropical Pacific temperatures cool -- Brettschneider said ocean temperatures near Alaska have been warm for the past two years, making it unlikely that next year will break 2016's warming trend.
"There's so much added heat to the world's oceans that it's going to take a while to dissipate -- and it's going to be warm for a while now," Brettschneider said. "It's going to be hard for Alaska to cool down much."