South Anchorage Rep. Bob Lynn has a message for any of his constituents who are thinking about attending an upcoming campaign fundraiser scheduled by his Republican primary challenger, Chris Birch, for Tuesday evening.
"It's going to rain," said Lynn, brushing off a forecast that calls for sun, in a phone interview Monday. He added: "Maybe I should try to call people — just tell them to stay at home."
Alaska lawmakers are now in their fourth extra week without a deal on the state budget or on Gov. Bill Walker's proposals to reduce the state's $4 billion deficit. And incumbents are facing a problem: the ban on political fundraising during the legislative session.
Lawmakers like Lynn are being forced to watch from Juneau as their opponents build up war chests for the upcoming campaign season.
With work at the Capitol currently at a standstill, legislators and observers said the demands of lawmakers' re-election campaigns could ultimately help get things moving.
"People need to be in their districts. They need to be putting together the mechanics of a campaign. They need to be organizing," Cindy Smith, a former legislative aide and Juneau observer, said in a phone interview. "Getting out in a campaign year is always a motivating force."
For his part, Birch, who's holding the Tuesday fundraiser in South Anchorage, said he doesn't feel bad for Lynn, or other incumbents.
"The media is trumpeting the accomplishments, or lack of same — whatever's going on in Juneau. They've got a position to make things happen, or not," said Birch, a former Anchorage Assembly member. "Trying to challenge an incumbent, it's a huge hurdle."
Birch pointed out that Lynn had already raised more than $16,000 before the start of the legislative session, though that's less than the $29,000 that Birch raised himself.
For now, at least, the fundraising rules give challengers at least one advantage over sitting legislators.
State statute bars lawmakers from soliciting or accepting campaign contributions while they're in regular or special session. There's an exception within 90 days of a primary or special election — a window that opens next week for the Aug. 16 primary — but it still requires legislators to hold any fundraisers outside of Juneau.
Lawmakers do not appear poised to finish their work any time soon. They held no hearings Monday, and the House held a floor session that lasted one minute, according to a journal published afterward.
Legislative leaders say they're waiting to resolve disputes over the budget, and over Walker's proposal to restructure the Permanent Fund to help pay for state government, until the House can agree on reforms to the state's oil tax system.
The current system is projected to pay out $775 million in cash subsidies to small oil and gas companies next year.
The House Rules Committee has scheduled a Tuesday morning hearing on the latest version of the oil tax legislation.
Lawmakers interviewed Monday said they're starting to get anxious about remaining in Juneau. But Sen. John Coghill, R-North Pole, added that his foremost concern is finishing the Legislature's business for the sake of the state — not for the sake of his re-election campaign.
"The reality of it is we have to fund the government whether the political cycle comes and goes or not," Coghill, the Senate majority leader, said in a phone interview.
He added, however, that he's missing opportunities to connect with constituents while he's in Juneau.
"You really don't get to talk to people at Fred Meyer's, at the gas station, where you really get unfiltered talk-back," he said. "And I'm kind of missing that."
Rep. Adam Wool, D-Fairbanks, similarly said he's not "freaking out" about his re-election bid, in which he currently faces a Republican challenger, Aaron Lojewski.
"My main thing is, let's get the work done that we're supposed to be doing. Let's get on with our lives," Wool said in a phone interview Monday. "I want to get back to my life in Fairbanks and running my business and being with my family and being with my constituents and talking to people. And yeah, sure — campaigning and raising money and getting ready for the next election."
One other factor in lawmakers' thinking could be the June 1 deadline for candidates to file to run for office. After that date, legislators won't face the same threat of last-minute challengers if they take tough votes on the tax measures proposed by Walker, or vote to use money from the Permanent Fund to help pay for state government — thereby reducing constituents' dividend checks.
"I can't help but think that it would be on your mind," said Smith, the former legislative aide.
She added, however, that other things should be on lawmakers' minds, too— like the notices that will be mailed to state employees in early June warning them of impending layoffs if the Legislature doesn't pass a budget by June 30, the end of the state's fiscal year.
"The need to not keep the state in financial suspense becomes more and more important — just the fact of it starts making everybody nervous," Smith said.
Lynn, the South Anchorage incumbent, said that the state's fundraising laws present an "aggravation" that puts him at a "real disadvantage."
But asked if his desire to return home would influence any of his votes, Lynn added: "Hell no."
"My vote's going to be a yes or a no on the issue," he said. "Not because I want to be some place else."