An Alaska Dispatch News survey of lawmakers on the state's fiscal crisis shows them largely reticent to weigh in on a pair of key questions on Alaska's fiscal crisis.
Most legislators declined to respond. But the handful of replies from the Republican-led House majority suggests that chamber could be more accommodating than its Senate counterpart when voting on the politically unpalatable measures that Gov. Bill Walker says are needed this year to stave off a fiscal calamity.
Seven of the nine House majority members who answered the Alaska Dispatch News survey said the Legislature this coming year needs to approve new taxes or spending some of the earnings of the Alaska Permanent Fund to help balance the budget.
"It's either that or take the entire deficit out of savings, and that's not prudent," Rep. Mike Hawker, R-Anchorage, wrote in his reply.
The survey was emailed to all 60 lawmakers late Monday, and 12 submitted responses by a deadline midday Thursday. They were asked whether the state's $3 billion budget deficit could be fixed solely by cutting, and whether the Legislature needed to approve new taxes or spending Permanent Fund earnings this year. The Legislature could do either or both in the upcoming special session or when it meets in regular session in January.
The survey was designed to be quick and simple. Lawmakers could only answer yes or no, though they were allowed a sentence to elaborate on each response.
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The two questions are crucial to the budget debate.
The state this year expects just $2.2 billion in revenue to offset $5 billion in spending; lawmakers could cut Alaska's education and health department budgets, or lay off every state worker, and still not close the gap.
By next June, without a spike in the price of oil or large spending cuts, the state will have enough savings remaining to last just over two years. Walker's administration says the Legislature needs to approve new revenue sources — like taxes or spending Permanent Fund earnings — in its upcoming session to preserve Alaska's credit rating.
"We have to," Pat Pitney, Walker's budget director, said in a brief interview Friday. She spoke immediately after appearing at a panel discussion on the fiscal crisis at the Alaska Federation of Natives convention in Anchorage, where she told audience members that closing the budget gap by cutting "wouldn't be pretty."
Many lawmakers, however, have been reticent to endorse quick action on taxes or spending money from the Permanent Fund, which is used to pay Alaskans' annual dividend checks. Sen. Lyman Hoffman, D-Bethel, told Pitney at a hearing last week that he thought his colleagues would dodge the issue during their upcoming session out of fear of losing their re-election campaigns.
"Elections are coming up, and right or wrong, politicians worry about their careers first," said Hoffman, a Bush Democrat in the Senate's Republican-led majority.
Twelve lawmakers answered the survey — seven Republicans and three Democrats from the 40-member House, and one Democrat and one Republican from the 20-member Senate. All said the deficit could not be closed solely by cutting the budget.
Seven of the 12, meanwhile, said new taxes or spending Permanent Fund earnings need to take place this year. All those respondents came from the House Republican-led majority.
Meanwhile, Rep. Les Gara and Sen. Bill Wielechowski, both Anchorage Democrats, suggested that more money could be extracted from Alaska's oil tax regime before turning to alternatives like new taxes, or spending money from the Permanent Fund.
"I do not support using the Permanent Fund earnings," Wielechowski wrote.
Several legislators who didn't respond to the survey sent emails objecting to the format.
"The budget situation is far too complex to be answered in the 'boxes' you have created," wrote Rep. Lora Reinbold, R-Eagle River.
Rep. Adam Wool, D-Fairbanks, said that by answering the questions directly, without qualifying them, "you get stuck."
"You get locked in: 'Oh, so-and-so said we need to raise taxes,' " Wool said in a phone interview. "No one wants to be the first guy out there saying, 'Yeah, we have to spend the PFD.' "
After being read the survey questions, Jim Lottsfeldt, an Anchorage political consultant, said the 12 responses were more than he would have anticipated from a group of elected politicians. Before endorsing taxes or Permanent Fund spending, he said, Democrats will likely try to turn to the oil industry for money.
Republicans, he added, "will be like, 'I don't want to be put in a box where anyone can ever say I'm going to support a tax any time, even it was to save my life,' even though they may very well do it."
"Everyone in the Legislature is kind of running around to make sure that whatever happens, they all share in the sin," Lottsfeldt said. "If they're going to vote for a Permanent Fund change, or a tax change, they want it to be unanimous so that one side can't use it against the other."
The issue, however, wasn't that delicate for some lawmakers.
Hawker sent his responses 11 minutes after the survey was issued. His endorsement of either new taxes or spending from Permanent Fund earnings, he said in a phone interview, is the same position he took when the Legislature faced a similar crisis in 2002, when he was first elected.
"My answers to your poll were extremely easy because they haven't changed in 14 years," he said in a phone interview. "I think most elected officials are reticent to talk about the obvious and necessary answers."
Nine members of Hawker's Republican-led caucus did respond to the survey. The Senate's Republican-led majority, meanwhile, had the lowest response rate, with just one of its 15 members, Sen. Peter Micciche, R-Soldotna, providing answers.
Senate President Kevin Meyer, R-Anchorage, provided a 530-word written statement instead. While he didn't directly answer the survey questions, he did affirm his colleagues' deep skepticism of taxes or spending Permanent Fund earnings.
Before asking Alaskans to pay for their government, Meyer wrote, spending must be reduced "to a level that Alaskans feel is both acceptable and within the realm of what government is constitutionally required to do."
Asked about the Senate majority's position, Hawker responded: "That has always been the Senate answer."
If lawmakers put off new taxes or other politically delicate measures until after next year's election — as Hoffman, the Bethel senator, said was likely — they'll be shirking their responsibilities, Hawker added.
"I think the citizens of Alaska elect us to make difficult decisions when they need to be made, and not defer them in the interests of our political ambitions," he said.