The Anchorage area could soon see its first snowfall of the season, but forecasters on Monday were still struggling to determine just how much and where in Alaska's biggest city it would fall.
The National Weather Service's public forecast posted shortly after 4 p.m. Monday said that at lower elevations, Tuesday will kick off with rain, then snow will join the mix by the afternoon. The rain and snow mixture will likely stick around through evening, but turn to just snow around midnight.
The weather service estimates lower elevations could see up to 1 inch of accumulation.
Higher up the Chugach Mountains, the morning rain will turn into snow by the afternoon. NWS said up to 2 inches of snow is expected at higher elevations.
Still, uncertainty remains about the predictions.
The problem comes from contradicting forecasting models. According to Dave Snider, a meteorologist in the NWS Anchorage office, each model uses a different mathematical formula that looks at weather differently.
"Sometimes they all match up perfectly; when that happens, it's a beautiful day," Snider said. "Sometimes two or three match up. Some days, they all line up -- that's not the case with this."
One of the biggest lingering questions was whether or not the Arctic cold front moving toward Anchorage from Siberia would arrive before the wet weather moves out, Snider said.
If it does snow, Snider expected most of it would be seen on the mountains and possibly the Hillside.
Even if snow does fall on Anchorage roads, forecaster Shaun Baines said, it might not necessarily warrant a rush for local drivers to put on their snow tires.
"It'd be hard to accumulate snow, especially on the main roadways," Baines said early Monday. "The fact that we're starting with rain and all this water on the roads, with relatively warm temperatures, means it'd take some pretty heavy snow to accumulate and stay on the roads."
Snider later elaborated that even if the Anchorage area does get snow, it shouldn't affect the evening commute.
The NWS has been updating its snow forecast since the weekend. Another update will be posted on its website around 5 a.m.
Monday's snow forecast for Anchorage came during a flurry of other winter-weather-related warnings and watches. Winter storm watches in the Brooks Range area were in effect through Tuesday night. Other regions under winter storm watches overnight Monday until Tuesday evening included the Yukon Flats, the central Interior, the upper and middle Tanana Valley, the Deltana and Tanana flats west of Delta Junction, the Denali area and the northeast slopes of the eastern Alaska Range west of the Tok Cutoff.